Extract
Russia in the Caucasus: Reversing the Tide
THE RUSSIA-GEORGIA WAR of August 2008 transformed the situation in Georgia and has had a profound effect on both the North and South Caucasus. However, the fundamental realities and trends in the region, which can be traced back to the collapse of the Soviet Union, continue to evolve. Russia is transitioning from a historical empire to a nation-state and a great power. To Moscow, the North and South Caucasus are inevitably interlinked. Historically, Russia's conquest of the North in the 19th century became a necessity once the empire had absorbed Georgia and thus established a foothold in the South. Today, the North is a breeding ground of the principal threats to Russian security: separatism, religious radicalism, terrorism, and ethnic conflicts. The South is an area of historical competition between Russia and the United States (and to a much lesser extent other outside and regional powers). The Caucasus is wedged between two economically and strategically important regions, the Caspian Basin and the Black Sea. The outcome of the U.S.-Russian competition there will have a significant influence on the feasibility of Moscow's goal of reconstituting a sphere of interests in the post-Soviet space.
Russia does not have anything resembling a grand strategy for the region. Yet, it has a set of more or less clearly defined interests in the Caucasus. These include, among others, preventing the disintegration of Moscow's control of the North Caucasus; thwarting other nations', especially the United States', efforts to win formal allies and deploy forces to the South Caucasus; establishing Russia's political primacy in the South Caucasus as the primary external power; retaining as much control over the oil/gas transit routes from the Caspian as p...See the full content of this document
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