Plus ca change: cycles of history and the 2004 federal election.

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Plus ca change: cycles of history and the 2004 federal election.

DURING THE LAST FEDERAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN, THERE WAS A moment when a Conservative minority government looked likely, with wide speculation that it might be propped up by the Bloc Quebecois. On the Inroads listserv, that led to an illuminating discussion on the challenges federal political parties face in dealing with Quebec's political parties and voters--still very topical, and perhaps even more topical should Liberal support further wane.

From: Reg Whitaker

There has been much discussion the past few days about the Conservatives and the Bloc. I would like to sketch in some historical context for this bizarre odd coupling.

In their fine book Rebuilding Canadian Party Politics, Ken Catty, Bill Cross and Lisa Young lay out a historical succession of four distinct national party systems:

1st: 1867-1921 2nd: 1921-1962 3rd: 1962-1993 4th: 1993-present

Each of these systems has particular features we need not go into here. What is very interesting, however, is that the end of each of these systems has been signalled by an apparent triumph of the Conservatives followed by a Tory collapse so severe that it shakes up the system and forces the emergence of a new party alignment under Liberal dominance.

The end of the first, strictly two-party, system was preceded by the Union government of 1917 which split the Liberals into pro- and anti-conscriptionist wings with the former joining the Borden government. In the s...

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