Summary
At the same time, 48 of 51 of the Electoral College contests (in the 50 states and the District of Columbia) voted for or against [George Bush] according to how they had voted for Bush in 2000. A shift of only 35,000 votes in Iowa and New Mexico (Bush's narrowest wins in 2004 and [Al Gore]'s closest wins in 2000) and New Hampshire ([John Kerry]'s closest win in 2004 and one of Bush's two closest wins in 2000) would have resulted in all 51 contests going exactly as they had gone in 2000.
George Bush's coattails were very limited. Outside of Texas (see below for more on the impact of that state's 2003 gerrymander), Republicans picked up only two seats in the U.S. House and lost four. Republicans defeated only one Democratic incumbent (by 1,365 votes in a district that George Bush likely carried by more than 45,000 votes) and gained only one open seat, winning by 31,000 in a district that Bush likely carried by 70,000 votes. All but two of the remaining Democratic incumbents won by margins of at least 10% - and those by the relatively comfortable margins of 7% and 9%. Only five Democrats, including those defeating incumbents and winning open seats, won by less than 7%, and only one won by less than 4%. Republican targets among incumbents in 2006 are quite limited.In November 2002, within days of the election, we issued our "Monopoly Politics" projections for November 2004 House races, for which we needed to know absolutely nothing about campaign financing, the quality of challengers and incumbent voting records and behavior. The only changes we have made since then were factoring in the 33 open seats and the 32 seats changed in the Texas redistricting plan. Once our one-size-fits-all formula was adjusted with that information, we projected 211 landslide winners of at least 20% - and 210 indeed did win by landslide. We projected another 107 comfortable wins of at least 10% - and 105 indeed did win. We projected another 33 winners - and 32 won. Yes, despite missing only four projected margins out of 351, we did have two of our projected winners (Phil Crane in Illinois and the open seat in Colorado's CD-3) defeated - making three errors out of more than 1,600 projected winners in the five House elections starting in 1996.See the full content of this document
Extract
It Was a Republican Year
The following is an analysis from FairVote-The Center for Voting and Democracy's Report on "Election 2004 By the Numbers."
Key findings include:The 2004 election was in fact a very status quo one, reflected by the near exact Electoral College mirror of 2004 to 2000 and the almost perfect stasis in U.S. House races. Even the Senate gains from Republicans fit into this pattern, with all Republican gains coming on ground that already was firmly Republican in 2000. Of course when Republicans control the White House and Congress, a status quo election is a victory for their party.The House of Representatives has reached a breathtaking level of non-competitiveness. More than 95% of seats were won by margins of more than 10% - a...See the full content of this document
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