Downfall Delayed: Endgames for the North Korean Regime
Harvard International Review › Vol. 27 Nbr. 3, October 2005
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Summary
Predicting the future is risky business. But fundamentals are not too difficult to recognize. The most fundamental fact concerning the Korean peninsula is that North Korea cannot remain as it is. The only question is whether it will change suddenly and abruptly or gradually and incrementally. In either case, Korea will be unified. To maintain peace and security in the region, it is essential that the process of Korean unification remain a peaceful one. With luck, a unified and robust Korea will contribute to the creation of a stable multipolar equilibrium in the Northeast Asian region. Nine years ago, the author wrote that there is a real possibility that Kim Jong Il may find himself on the way out in the next few years. Yet Kim Jong Il still rules in Pyongyang, and no sign of impending collapse is visible.
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Downfall Delayed: Endgames for the North Korean Regime
Predicting the future is risky business. But fundamentals are not too difficult to recognize. The most fundamental fact concerning the Korean peninsula is that North Korea cannot remain as it is. The only question is whether it will change suddenly and abruptly or gradually and incrementally. In either case, Korea will be unified. To maintain peace and security in the region, it is essential that the process of Korean unification remain a peaceful one. With luck, a unified and robust Korea will contribute to the creation of a stable multipolar equilibrium in the Northeast Asian region."
"No Way Out: North Korea's Impending Collapse"Spring 1996Nine years ago, I wrote "that there is a real possibility that Kim Jong Il may find himself on the way out in the next few year...See the full content of this document
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