Summary
Coffee over the last 20 years (11 two-year cycles), has seen three two-year cycle global surpluses and eight two-year cycle global deficits (coffee typically runs in two-year cycles with an up year and down year). Coffee is on the verge of repricing higher 20 years worth of insufficient pricing. Demand at some point in 2010 will need to be rationed to promote global production and buy time for this production response to filter into creating production surpluses that can rebuild depleted global buffer stocks. The earliest that this scenario could happen would be in crop cycle year 2012/2013. This would only be possible if prices spike and remain high for an extended period of time.
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Extract
Coffee Could Have a Volcanic Eruption
Coffee over the last 20 years (1 1 two-year cycles), has seen three two-year cycle global surpluses and eight two-year cycle global deficits (coffee typically runs in two-year cycles with an up...
See the full content of this document
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