Summary
Democratic strategists in Texas have been telling anyone who will listen for the past year that they can defeat John Cornyn, the state's junior U.S. senator, in November. This is big talk for a party that hasn't won a statewide race since 1994 and hasn't held Cornyn's senate seat in 47 years. But they have some fancy polling data to back it up. More than a third of Texans wouldn't know their junior senator if he fell on them. They call this "name ID" (or lack thereof) in the political consulting business. Cornyn's is abysmal for a politician who's served as a Texas Supreme Court justice, state attorney general, and, for the past six years, U.S. senator. Of those who do know Cornyn, fewer than 50 percent view him favorably-dangerous territory for an incumbent seeking re-election. Some of those same polls show him running closely with Democratic opponent Rick Noriega.
"He was an articulate, intelligent judge," says John Coppedge, an East Texas physician and longtime player in Texas Republican politics. Coppedge has known Cornyn nearly 20 years-they met in 1989, when the future senator was a district judge in San Antonio. Support from doctors has been a key component of Cornyn's political career. Coppedge has supported and raised funds for Cornyn in every election since, beginning with the successful 1990 campaign for the Texas Supreme Court, though the two have occasionally had their differences. "Politically, it's fair to characterize him as conservative," Coppedge says. "But his judicial philosophy was to not legislate from the bench. ... Whatever your personal opinion is or whatever you think public policy should be, that's not your job there. There are some people who have been judges who didn't quite get over the fact that they weren't legislators anymore. I don't think that was John's reputation."The Washington-based Cook Political Report sized up the race in mid-Iuly and deemed it "solidly Republican." The GOP still has a built-in advantage in Texas that Cornyn would have to squander. He may not be the most exciting candidate, but he's also known as a disciplined campaigner who rarely makes mistakes. The Cornyn campaign even believes the senator's relative anonymity could actually benefit him. It hopes a disgruntled electorate that's unfamiliar with Cornyn may not blame him for his party's failings. Moreover, Cornyn, in his blandness and adherence to conservative orthodoxy, hasn't alienated any large segments of the party. As one GOP insider pointed out in private, [Kay Bailey Hutchison], Gov. Rick Perry, and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst all have entrenched factions of critics within the party. Not so Cornyn. It may be a down year for Republicans, but the ones who do come out to vote will stick with the senator.See the full content of this document
Extract
Big, Bland John
Democratic strategists in Texas have been telling anyone who will listen for the past year that they can defeat John Cornyn, the state's junior U.S. senator, in November. This is big talk for a party that hasn't won a statewide race since 1994 and hasn't held Cornyn's senate seat in 47 years. But they have some fancy polling data to back it up. More than a third of Texans wouldn't know their junior senator if he fell on them. They call this "name ID" (or lack thereof) in the political consulting business. Cornyn's is abysmal for a politician who's served as a Texas Supreme Court justice, state attorney general, and, for the past six years, U.S. senator. Of those who do know Cornyn, fewer than 50 percent view him favorably-dangerous territory for an incumbent seeking re-election. Some of those same polls show him running closely with Democratic opponent Rick Noriega.
But you don't need polling data to know that Cornyn can be beaten. Just watch him give a speech. "Dull" is an understatement.When Cornyn spoke at the Republican state convention on June 13, for instance, the excitement level-even among the 5,000 ardent Republicans assembled in a downtown Houston convention cen...See the full content of this document
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