The Impact of Baby Boomer Retirements On Teacher Labor Markets

Summary

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This article discusses several aspects of teacher labor markets in the coming decade. The article introduces the forecast of full-time teacher hiring needs. The forecast links estimates of demand for classrooms, obtained primarily through US Census projections of school-age children, with the expected supply of teachers returning form previous years. Teaching hiring needs will rise over the coming decade, and a good portion of this will be due to retirements. That said, this increase will not be expected to be significantly different from that of some past decades, especially relative to the size of the aggregate labor force. However, this will play out over a longer horizon than it has in the past, and it undoubtedly will not be equally dispersed across the nation. In particular, there should be more research into which communities might be most in need, especially if the burden falls on schools that traditionally have had the most difficulty recruiting and retaining teachers.

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The Impact of Baby Boomer Retirements On Teacher Labor Markets

One important consequence of the ongoing baby boom retirement is an unprecedented loss in work experience. An aging work force has caused particular unease in elementary and secondary education; some school districts envision repercussions from increases in retirement, as well as other forms of turnover.1 Figure 1 uses the 1940-2000 U.S. Decennial Censuses to plot one measure of expected retirement-the fraction of teachers 50 years and over. That share rose from 18% in 1980 to 31% in 2000. While the rable to the 1960 level, the teacher work force became notably younger in the 1960s and 19...

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