Futures; Chicago

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from April 2004
Last Number: December 2010

Futures Magazine Group
ISSN 0746-2468

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Vol. 39 Nbr. 12, December 2010

The Number That Killed Us

VaR is a number that purports to estimate future losses deriving from a portfolio of financial assets. It is doomed because of its analytical foundations and the realities of real-life markets. VaR is an untrustworthy measure of future market risk because: it is calculated by looking at the past. The upcoming risk of a trading asset is essentially assumed to mirror its behavior over the historical time period arbitrarily selected for the calculation. The mathematical engineering behind VaR te...


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