Business Perspectives

A Fork in the Road for 2010

The US economy entered 2010 in a murky fog of high unemployment, ballooning federal deficits, and a momentous election year. Improvement in the economy will be a steep uphill climb against a towering wall of uncertainty surrounding national health insurance reform, cap and trade legislation, and an exit strategy for the Federal Reserve ultra-loose monetary policy actions over the past two years. Moreover, the road to recovery will be filled with potholes and speed bumps that should keep econo...

A Perspective On the U.S. Economic Outlook for 2010 and Beyond

During the third quarter of 2009, inflation-adjusted gross domestic product rose at a healthy 2.8% annual rate. This increase, the first in a year, and the likelihood of continued moderate growth in the fourth quarter have signaled the end of the Great Recession that started in December 2007. The public's opinions differ -- they often view the state of the economy through the lens of labor market conditions, which remain quite weak -- but economists and forecasters are increasingly focusing o...

The Economy Bottomed Out: Now What?

Although it will be some time before the end of the recession is officially designated, it appears that both the regional and national economies bottomed out around July. US gross domestic product (GDP) rose in the third quarter on a quarter-to-quarter basis for the first time in well over a year. Moreover, leading economic indicators are pointing toward continued GDP growth for the end of 2009. Unfortunately, the end of the recession just means that the economy is no longer declining. Expect...

Memphis in 2010: Transportation Leading the Way

As 2009 closed and 2010 began, there was hope that the ugliness of the worst economic recession in decades may be at an end. While the recession may technically be over, however, the local and national employment situations will make it feel as if people are in the depths of the recession for some time to come. As a lagging economic indicator, it is quite possible that unemployment could still grow even though the recession is over. To be certain, looking at the employment numbers and unemplo...

A Cautiously Optimistic Outlook for the Arkansas Economy

In comparison to other parts of the US, Arkansas' economy fared relatively well during the recession of 2008-2009. The nationwide downturn had its greatest impact on the Arkansas economy during the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009. With signs of renewed growth becoming perceptible in the national economy, Arkansas is poised to emerge ahead of the curve. Perhaps the clearest indication of Arkansas' relative performance is evident in its unemployment figures. The unemploymen...

Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky Regional Economic Outlook for 2010

In the Northern Kentucky (NKY)/Greater Cincinnati region, it appears that the worst days of the recession may be over, as an increasing number of positive signs indicate the economy is beginning to stabilize. That said, the region continues to face daunting challenges, particularly in the labor market. Employment is expected to continue to decline and the unemployment rate to remain at nearly double digits throughout much of 2010. Gross Regional Product is a measure of the total production an...

Tracking the Louisiana Economy for 2010

In the 2009 Business Perspectives forecast, the author indicated that prospects did not appear favorable for economic improvement in 2009. According to almost all indicators, Louisiana saw significant deterioration in its economic condition over the course of last year. Throughout the year, the number of employed persons trended down, and by the end of the year, there had been an additional loss of over 46,900 (-2.4%) nonfarm jobs after seasonal adjustment. The seasonally adjusted unemploymen...

Mississippi Economic Outlook: High Unemployment, State Budget Cuts Will Slow Recovery

Key economic indicators in the state have leveled off after a steep plunge at the start of the year. The full brunt of the downturn hit Mississippi later than it did most states, but nonetheless the recovery is expected to parallel that of the nation as a whole. The unemployment rate in the state, which was 9.6% in the third quarter (Q3), has been close to the US unemployment rate since the summer. The number of persons unemployed is forecast to continue rising until spring when the state and...

An Economic Summary of Missouri

The Missouri economy peaked in Calendar Year 2007, but -- as with nearly all states -- Missouri is struggling against the tidal wave of the national recession. Missouri employment has been on a general decline since October 2007. According to US Bureau of Labor Statistics' data, through the twelve months ending November 2008, the state lost 23,200 jobs, a decline of 0.8%. Missouri's economic outlook over the next two years is similar to that of the nation, weighed down by the general outlook ...